Strengthening water security through advances in hydrologic prediction

Abstract:  

Actionable hydrologic predictions support actions to strengthen water security. Hydrologic predictions support decisions that both improve water sustainability and reduce the impacts of water-related hazards. Predictions provide advance warning of floods and threats to drinking water as well as information on drought and ecological stress. Predictions also support decisions about planting crops, planning for wildfires, supplying drinking water, managing urban drainage networks, and optimizing hydropower production, as well as forecasting ecological risks such as algal blooms, industrial and urban wastewater overflows, and other critical water quality issues. Providing information to support water security decisions is essential to protect our personal safety, sustain our health and wellbeing, and increase our economic prosperity.

The presentation will summarize how recent advances in hydrologic prediction support actions to strengthen water security. Spurred by the formation of the National Water Center (Tuscaloosa, Alabama) in 2015, the presentation will highlight the advances of the research and applications community to predict the dominant hydrologic processes across large geographical domains. The presentation will focus on new capabilities to select models across diverse landscapes to improve simulations of dominant processes, the capabilities to quantify uncertainty in model predictions to support risk-based decision-making, and the capabilities to leverage machine learning and artificial intelligence to extract insights from data. The presentation will conclude with a discussion on key opportunities to enhance hydrologic predictions, emphasizing the critical research that is necessary to strengthen resilience to water extremes.

Bio:
Dr. Clark is a Professor of Hydrology in the Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary. He is also a Schulich Research Chair in Environmental Prediction and Executive Co-Director of the United Nations University Hub at the University of Calgary. Dr. Clark is elected Fellow of the American Geophysical Union (in 2016) and is the previous Editor-In-Chief for Water Resources Research (2017-2020). Dr. Clark’s research focuses on advancing the science and practice of environmental prediction. His research group builds mechanistic terrestrial systems models that are used for a myriad of applications, including environmental forecasting (e.g., predicting floods and water quality threats), climate impact assessments (e.g., understanding climate vulnerabilities at multiple spatial scales), and Earth System prediction (e.g., improving the land component of Earth System models). Dr. Clark has authored or co-authored over 250 journal articles since receiving his PhD in 1998.